| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | UCF | 10-17 | 1546.7 | -55.2 | 1491.5 | 71.8% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Liberty | 34-24 | 1491.5 | +35.4 | 1526.9 | 50.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 34-41 | 1526.9 | -47.8 | 1479.1 | 63.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Murray State | 45-10 | 1479.1 | +0.0 | 1479.1 | 47.0% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 25-42 | 1479.1 | -70.4 | 1408.7 | 86.9% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 29-27 | 1408.7 | +42.3 | 1451.0 | 58.0% |
| 9 | Oct 15 2025 | W | Delaware | 38-25 | 1451.0 | +37.6 | 1488.6 | 47.9% |
| 11 | Oct 29 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 24-21 | 1488.6 | +13.4 | 1502.0 | 88.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | UTEP | 30-27 | 1502.0 | +12.7 | 1514.7 | 88.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Kennesaw State | 35-26 | 1514.7 | +25.4 | 1540.1 | 63.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Florida International | 21-27 | 1540.1 | -62.8 | 1477.3 | 79.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Western Kentucky | 37-34 | 1477.3 | +40.8 | 1518.1 | 44.1% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 15-19 | 1518.1 | -53.4 | 1464.7 | 55.2% |
| 18 | Dec 16 2025 | W | Troy | 17-13 | 1464.7 | +45.9 | 1510.6 | 46.0% |